Where the Earth
Becomes Unlivable
Climate change is pushing parts of our planet beyond human survivability. By 2100, billions face deadly heat, rising oceans, and ecological collapse. This data-journalism project maps the regions, thresholds, and timelines of a world entering uncharted territory.
People at Risk by 2070
3.5 Billion
Across tropics & subtropics
Human Survivability Limit
35°C WBT
Wet-bulb temperature threshold
Projected Climate Migrants
216 Million
Internal displacement by 2050
Current Warming
1.2°C
Above pre-industrial levels
The Four Threats
Climate-driven uninhabitability unfolds through four interconnected mechanisms, each capable of rendering vast regions hostile to human life.
Deadly Heat
When wet-bulb temperatures exceed 35°C, the human body can no longer cool itself. Parts of the Persian Gulf and South Asia have already briefly crossed this threshold. By 2070, weeks of unsurvivable heat could become annual events across the tropics.
EXPLORE DEADLY HEAT →Rising Seas
Sea levels are rising at 3.7mm/year and accelerating. By 2100, 200 million people in low-elevation coastal zones face permanent inundation. Small island nations confront existential threat; megacities from Bangkok to Miami face managed retreat.
EXPLORE RISING SEAS →Fire & Aridity
Fire seasons have lengthened 20% since the 1980s. The Amazon approaches a savannah tipping point. The American Southwest endures its worst megadrought in 1,200 years. From California to Siberia, the land itself is becoming hostile.
EXPLORE FIRE & ARIDITY →Mass Displacement
The World Bank projects 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050. The economic toll could reach 23% of global GDP by 2100. The poorest nations — least responsible for emissions — face the most severe consequences.
EXPLORE HUMAN COST →Global Risk Distribution
Population exposure to extreme heat risk by region, projected under current emissions trajectory (RCP8.5).
Timeline of Escalating Risk
Present Day
1.2°C warming. Dangerous WBT events (28-31°C) already common in Gulf and South Asia. 35°C WBT briefly crossed in Persian Gulf and Indus Valley. Fire seasons lengthening globally.
Mid-Century
~2°C warming. Heat stress reduces outdoor labor capacity by 20-30% in tropics. 150-200 million climate migrants. Major coastal cities begin managed retreat. Amazon approaches tipping point.
Late Century
~3°C warming. Persian Gulf uninhabitable for weeks each summer. North China Plain experiences repeated deadly heatwaves. 1.5 billion exposed to potentially unsurvivable conditions. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse likely irreversible.
Uncharted Territory
~4°C under current trajectory. Large regions of tropics and subtropics uninhabitable for extended periods. Hundreds of millions displaced. Global GDP loss of 10-23%. The world enters conditions not seen in human history.
Key Research
Sherwood & Huber, 2010 — PNAS
Established the 35°C wet-bulb temperature as the upper limit of human survivability. Projected that with ~11°C warming, large parts of the tropics would exceed this threshold.
IPCC AR6 Working Group II, 2022
High confidence: heat-related mortality will increase significantly. Exposure to dangerous heat has doubled for the over-65 population since 2000. Coastal cities face compound flooding.
World Bank Groundswell Report, 2021
Under pessimistic scenario, climate change could force 216 million people to migrate internally by 2050 across six regions. Sub-Saharan Africa could see up to 86 million internal migrants.
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, 2022
Heat-related deaths among over-65s increased ~68% between 2000-2004 and 2017-2021. Outdoor worker productivity loss already ~10% globally, projected to reach 20-30% in tropics by 2050.
The 35°C Wet-Bulb Threshold
At this temperature and 100% humidity, a healthy person sitting in the shade with unlimited water dies within 6 hours. Sweat no longer evaporates. The body's core temperature rises uncontrollably. Parts of the Persian Gulf and Indus Valley have already briefly crossed this threshold. Newer research suggests the real survivability limit for vulnerable populations — the elderly, children, outdoor workers, pregnant women — may be closer to 31°C WBT.